Brand Dilution

A few posts ago, I wrote about “Inconspicuous Consumption” — the idea that people will still consume, if they have the cash, but will try to be stealthy about it and not show off labels and brands.

I think that the next trend regarding consumer goods is “Brand Dilution.”  With the economic situation the way it is, all kinds of luxury goods have been going on sale at rock bottom prices. We’re talking 70% at Saks Fifth Avenue.  The New York Times wrote an article this week describing the sales in detail. When these branded “luxury” goods go on this deep of a discount, do they lose their brand appeal and cachet?

In my opinion, some of the goods, like those made by Prada, have diminished in quality in recent years. Oh their runway couture is pretty well made, but the bags are really just a way to make money off the brand. The bags at 70% off, are finally being sold at their real value.

But the difference with these current sales is that both poorly made “branded” goods and actually well made “luxury” goods are all on the sale block.

If one pays less for something branded as a “luxury” good and it goes on super sale, does the brand still have status?

Trend: For ultimate status, we’re going to be looking beyond the ability to select and purchase from a high end “brand.” Those days are over. Maybe education will become the new status.

Trick, then Treat

Well human nature is human nature. Now Americans have shifted from using their homes as ATM’s, to expecting the goverment to be one. The banking and auto industries have lined up for treats, after having tricked themselves and the American public. Now some cities, and even a public school are all petitioning for “bailout” money.

Doesn’t anyone want to actually work? To try to sort out the problems with the institutions they are running and to make them more efficient?  Or do they teach people in business school that one gets further with unethical behavior and begging?

Trend: Halloween is yet again over but big business is still trying to Trick the public while asking for Treats.

uh, I know just, just, what you are, ah ah…

Britney Spears’ “Womanizer” is a catchy pop tune on its way to being a end of year surprise hit. My Trends take on it, besides the catchy tune, is that is symbolizes what we are looking for right now, and where we are: in the realm of wanting authenticity.

Britney sings about a man who is a Womanizer and who doesn’t fool her with his ways. She sees right through him, she knows “just, just, what you are.” 

Witness the man throwing the shoe at President Bush.

After the current financial crisis, real estate crisis, and private sector and government transgressions–there is a great desire for honesty, for authenticity, and for wanting to know exactly what something is or is not.

Like it or not, the timing of this song is spot on.

Trend: Authenticity.

honeysh*t

Well, there is finally a QVC home shopping channel for the digerati:  Honeyshed.

Honeyshed is a website where people can sign up to belong to a community of people who buy online merchandise that is being demonstrated live by what I am calling the “honey” part of the name. The wares are modeled by young ladies and young gentlemen who talk for long periods of time about each item. There are several “channels” of merchandise to look at that have long commercials/sales pitches of the items.

It seems to me to be a mashup of infomercials and the teen stores at the mall with a touch of Las Vegas stylin’ thrown in for decoration.

I’ll have to add to this piece when I can decode a bit more of what it means.

Trend: Honeyshed is trying to really flip the model of internet to be constantly streaming television advertising. Instead of live porn, you get clothed young men and women smiling and talking effortlessly (and effervescently) about whatever Honeysh*t is on offer.  Run away.

nightmare on main street

Halloween has come and gone, but the really scary stuff is just getting started. For the record,  I’m not talking about friendships here, I’m talking about strangers. 

Lately, I’ve noticed a trend of people needing to tell each other scary stories. Its sort of like the whole nation is being traumatized and the way that they are dealing with it is to “share the scare” with others. In this way, they are holding the “scare hot potato” for a moment, until they pass it along to the next unsuspecting soul.

No one seems to ask how we’re doing, without getting some terrible traumatic story in reply. I haven’t met anyone lately who replies with a “great, thanks for asking” or “couldn’t be better!” or even a “fine thank you.”  Its as if the polite query of “how are you?” has somehow become the magic key to open the floodgates of whatever trauma, drama or problem is plaguing the person given the polite query.

As a culture, are we past the point of “fine, thanks, and you?”  

If we are seeing others rewarded for airing their disasters online, in the press or on TV, have we become collectively conditioned to do the same with hope of the same reward?

Since when did it become the norm to tell strangers your deepest fears?

Trend: Fine thanks is going away. For whatever reason, the collective conscious of the American public has no qualms about telling strangers how awful things are for them. If you are going to use “How are you?” with a stranger, brace yourself–the reply might be more frightening than you expected.

where the wild things aren’t

The US has clamped down on being wild. From the Patriot Act to the land developer’s need to categorize, boxup and stifle any individuality, the US is not a place for untidy, wild, or unruly. Its probably a leftover from our English ancestors, but if you’re a “tall poppy” these days, you’d best get out of town. 

I predict this trend reversing. I think we’re simmering to a boil, and once we get there, our wild selves are going to frolic in the wild daisies (if there are any to be found).

We are creatures of nature. The more we connect to our planet, the more organic and free we will let ourselves become.

Trend: I have no proof yet, but I think the same-same-same trend is going away. Soon.

“Check”ing out the Election Results

With Obama winning the election and entering the White House in January 2009, I think that fashion is going to pick up the pace and echo the cooperative and integrated sentiment of the times.

Look for black and white together to make a comeback. Checks, houndstooth, and/or black and white stripes will all be popular Blue may also feature in fashion–as thousands of democrats subconsciously wear their colors. 

Another influence will be Africa. Look for African color pallets, patterns and small details in clothing in the coming seasons. Maybe Fall 2009 or Spring 2010. If they can shift their focus before production, we might see it in Spring 2009.

I think the trend will continue in music. Look for Ska and mixed Reggae bands to make a Two-Tone comeback. 

Trend:  cooperation, unity, and merging of cultures, races and ideas. Look for it in black and white fashion, patterns, music and African themes woven into existing trends.

eco-rexia

So the downside of all this conservation of resources–the downside of “Reduce, Reuse and Recycle” is something that I’m calling “Ecorexia.” These are the people that take extreme measures in their conservation. The ones that reuse plastic bags for a year, or don’t use any heat in the winter. The ones who channel their OCD into the new trend, by disguising their depravation as conservation.  It isn’t conservation, its depravation. In your quest to do right by the planet, beware the siren call of ecorexia.

Trend: Ecorexia–the disorder of “extreme” conservation.

kaboomers

During the past few weeks, I attended two different concerts: Neil Diamond and David Byrne. Both fringe “boomer” bands and both interesting to me for different reasons. Neil Diamond’s concert seemed heavily weighted towards Baby Boomers and their parents, while David Byrne’s seemed to attract Baby Boomers and their children.

Both concerts addressed the human condition. Neil Diamond took it in a spiritual direction, while David Byrne asked a lot of questions. Both performers used African rhythms, African-Americans or just Africans and back up singers. The sound flavor of Africa is primal, early to our roots as humans (in my belief system anyway) and for the themes of the human condition, soundly comforting.

Neil’s take on the human condition was to address it within the framework of salivation. He began with the energy and pop of his younger material. “Sweet Caroline” was sung with extra choruses to insure that everyone in the audience had a chance to see and hear him sing it–and also to drive home the point that “good times never seemed so good.” Midway through the show, Neil took us down to the bottom of the arc where he became the “Solitary Man” and his duet partner told him “You Don’t Bring Me Flowers Anymore.”

After taking us to the depths of solitary despair, Neil talked to the audience about being spiritual, being a man of “the Lord” and of his country, and sang a spiritual song, followed by ”America in Blue Jeans” with the latter song featuring projected images of the World Trade Center, the American flag, immigrants and the Statue of Liberty. This emotion was capped with a rousing ”Brother Love’s Traveling Salvation Show,” which delivered us from a solitary state and from the trials of immigration into a revival tent. It sort of seemed like he was telling a life story of someone who had suffered and then “saved” in some way.

Neil’s story likely works for the parents of boomers who are immigrants who came here and made their own way, who feel a certain bond with America and who had Neil Diamond songs providing the soundtrack for their lives.

David Byrne took us on a different journey. Byrne and his entire ensemble wore white–as if they were already in heaven or some sort of clean place. Byrne’s hair is a shock of white as well which made him blend in with the crowd of peers who had come to see him with their adult children. As he sang, three dancers, all younger people, interacted with him during the performance. It was sort of like watching an old man ducking younger people on the sidewalk or in the park as they skidded under his legs, leapfrogged over him, and spun him around. Throughout this, he just kept playing his music, doing his thing.

The story in Byrne’s show was similiar, though the nostalgic hits were interspersed with current material–a collaboration with Brian Eno. The Eno pieces were obvious, as he has a signature to his work that changes rhythm from the energy of the early Talking Heads material. The arc was different in this case. He moved us from the urgent energy of the early Talking Heads, towards a more laid back and curious mindset. Then the build took us to “Burning Down the House.” Byrne didn’t seem to be seeking “Salvation,” he seemed to be getting “ready to rumble” with the human condition.

In preparation, Byrne surrounded himself with a cacophony of trickers to stave off the inevitable. The finale to Byrne’s performance was an surprise performance by The Extra Action Marching Band. The Extra Action marching band is from San Francisco. This quote is from their website:

The Extra Action Marching Band is a collision of big band and ecstatic turmoil. Despite their name they rarely march, but rather shimmy, crawl, mob and charge. Trumpets pounce like eagles and tubas drip ass-bouncing blurps from fat fingers. Drums shudder under wild eyed and white knuckled drummers, and through it all winds the flag team; glittering and sinuous creatures who masterfully pulsate pom-poms in a hypnotic fantasy. The listener is hoodwinked, soaked, and savaged into giddy abandon.

Powerful and empowering, the Extra Action Marching Band seduces the pre-civilized will. They are immediate and visceral – more of a sweaty invitation than a show. They are a parody of idioms with shattering volume – guerrilla theater with the rug rolled up…

As the sound boils into a spinning crossfire, sweat and flying hair tangle in a delicious knot. Audience and band submit together, to each other, to the whim and fancy, to satisfaction. Irresistible.

I don’t know about you, but “dancing towards empowerment” is more of my kind of salvation.

Trend: We’re all on the path. The real question is “Which way do you want to travel?”

vieuxveau pauvre

To continue my post on the trend of “inconspicuous consumption” — in retrospect, I think that it’s counterpart is going to be quality. This means that thrifting will likely trump Target/Walmart and the bargain chains because if its made it to thrift, its got to have some quality in the construction that made it last.

When times are tough, and people have limited amounts of money, it seems that the idea of an investment in what one buys to last, becomes important. It isn’t just limited to consumer goods. There is a rise of concern about quality in food. Quality food may take longer to prepare, but what we put in our bodies will be better for us. Quality lasts and quality will help us last. 

The notion of quality as a trend layers over both “inconspicuous consumption” and of “get smaller” and neatly funnels into the eco-mantra “Reduce, Reuse and Recycle.”

Through my trend filter, these look like this:

Reduce: get smaller. Buy less, but better quality so it will last. We will see less spending. We will see more Micro Homes.

Reuse: if people can’t afford new quality, they will seek out “old quality” either by thrifting, or home swaps or garage sales. (Another trend taking off for clothing seems to be  working wear goods such as painter’s pants, field coats and other kinds of very durable, high quality, but lower cost, and lower status “inconspicuous consumption” items.)

Recycle: Quality food will lead to more composting, more home gardening, more tuning into the ecosystem. Quality clothing will lead to more sharing, swapping, thrifting as durable goods can last. 

Trend: What’s “new” is the “old” European mindset