Is Halloween a Social Barometer of the Trending Times?

According to the National Retail Federation’s 2008 and 2009 Halloween Consumer Intentions and Actions surveys, aside from the “Witch,” which held the number one spot in both 2008 and 2009, the most popular Halloween costumes in the number two spot during the past two years were the “Pirate” in 2008 and the “Vampire” in 2009.

This is not really a surprise.

In the early part of October 2008 there were major drops in the US stock market. People were starting to see their fortunes plummet and to realize that the pirates that had run off with them and in 2009 the recession hit home, with many losing their houses, their jobs and income, and their standing in their communities.

Now I’m not totally sure where to go with this point. Could it be the classic case of the abused “becoming” the abuser? Perhaps the people whose life savings were raided, became pirates and the people whose last dollar was sucked from them, became the vampires.

But that might be too easy. Or too Freudian.

Or not.

Trend: Watch the news for the indicators of the most popular costumes (second to witches…)

Voyeurism and Narcissium Sell Software!

Now I have to pubish this. I ran into a Silicon Valley executive that I know today in CA and we got to talking about an application that is going well for a company he recently left– and I thought I knew the reason why. Its been a pet hypothesis of mine for years. He asked me a strange question, after I had mentioned that “Voyuerism and Narcissium Sell Software” to him. He said that it was a “good insight” and then asked if I’d published it anywhere. I said that I hadn’t.

I’ve thought about it–and talked about it since 1991: Voyeurism and Narcissium are what sells software. I designed a little Chinese Fortune Telling Parlour application for a open house night at ITP in grad school at NYU. Lots of people played with it, and looked up themselves and their friends. That’s when I made the observation.

People like to look at themselves and at other people. If they can do it at the same time–then the application will succeed! Look at Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, MySpace, Skype–basically any software that allows for both looking at others and self viewing, self reading, self posting etc…will sell. Probably even “representations of self” such as Second Life and WoW also count for that. We’re on the chimp ladder. We like to compare ourselves and compete.

So now I have published my idea: “Voyeurism and Narcissium Sell Software.” Copyright 1991, Trends,WordPress

Brand Dilution

A few posts ago, I wrote about “Inconspicuous Consumption” — the idea that people will still consume, if they have the cash, but will try to be stealthy about it and not show off labels and brands.

I think that the next trend regarding consumer goods is “Brand Dilution.”  With the economic situation the way it is, all kinds of luxury goods have been going on sale at rock bottom prices. We’re talking 70% at Saks Fifth Avenue.  The New York Times wrote an article this week describing the sales in detail. When these branded “luxury” goods go on this deep of a discount, do they lose their brand appeal and cachet?

In my opinion, some of the goods, like those made by Prada, have diminished in quality in recent years. Oh their runway couture is pretty well made, but the bags are really just a way to make money off the brand. The bags at 70% off, are finally being sold at their real value.

But the difference with these current sales is that both poorly made “branded” goods and actually well made “luxury” goods are all on the sale block.

If one pays less for something branded as a “luxury” good and it goes on super sale, does the brand still have status?

Trend: For ultimate status, we’re going to be looking beyond the ability to select and purchase from a high end “brand.” Those days are over. Maybe education will become the new status.

Trick, then Treat

Well human nature is human nature. Now Americans have shifted from using their homes as ATM’s, to expecting the goverment to be one. The banking and auto industries have lined up for treats, after having tricked themselves and the American public. Now some cities, and even a public school are all petitioning for “bailout” money.

Doesn’t anyone want to actually work? To try to sort out the problems with the institutions they are running and to make them more efficient?  Or do they teach people in business school that one gets further with unethical behavior and begging?

Trend: Halloween is yet again over but big business is still trying to Trick the public while asking for Treats.

Uh, I Know Just, Just, What you are, ah ah…

Britney Spears’ “Womanizer” is a catchy pop tune on its way to being a end of year surprise hit. My Trends take on it, besides the catchy tune, is that is symbolizes what we are looking for right now, and where we are: in the realm of wanting authenticity.

Britney sings about a man who is a Womanizer and who doesn’t fool her with his ways. She sees right through him, she knows “just, just, what you are.” 

Witness the man throwing the shoe at President Bush.

After the current financial crisis, real estate crisis, and private sector and government transgressions–there is a great desire for honesty, for authenticity, and for wanting to know exactly what something is or is not.

Like it or not, the timing of this song is spot on.

Trend: Authenticity.

Honeysh*t

Well, there is finally a QVC home shopping channel for the digerati: Honeyshed.

Honeyshed is a website where people can sign up to belong to a community of people who buy online merchandise that is being demonstrated live by what I am calling the “honey” part of the name. The wares are modeled by young ladies and young gentlemen who talk for long periods of time about each item. There are several “channels” of merchandise to look at that have long commercials/sales pitches of the items.

It seems to me to be a mashup of infomercials and the teen stores at the mall with a touch of Las Vegas stylin’ thrown in for decoration.

I’ll have to add to this piece when I can decode a bit more of what it means.

Trend: Honeyshed is trying to really flip the model of internet to be constantly streaming television advertising/titillation. The product on offer seems to be the flirty young men and women smiling and talking effortlessly (and effervescently) about whatever Honeysh*t is on offer. Run away.

Nightmare on Main Street

Halloween has come and gone, but the really scary stuff is just getting started. For the record,  I’m not talking about friendships here, I’m talking about strangers. 

Lately, I’ve noticed a trend of people needing to tell each other scary stories. Its sort of like the whole nation is being traumatized and the way that they are dealing with it is to “share the scare” with others. In this way, they are holding the “scare hot potato” for a moment, until they pass it along to the next unsuspecting soul.

No one seems to ask how we’re doing, without getting some terrible traumatic story in reply. I haven’t met anyone lately who replies with a “great, thanks for asking” or “couldn’t be better!” or even a “fine thank you.”  Its as if the polite query of “how are you?” has somehow become the magic key to open the floodgates of whatever trauma, drama or problem is plaguing the person given the polite query.

As a culture, are we past the point of “fine, thanks, and you?”  

If we are seeing others rewarded for airing their disasters online, in the press or on TV, have we become collectively conditioned to do the same with hope of the same reward?

Since when did it become the norm to tell strangers your deepest fears?

Trend: Fine thanks is going away. For whatever reason, the collective conscious of the American public has no qualms about telling strangers how awful things are for them. If you are going to use “How are you?” with a stranger, brace yourself–the reply might be more frightening than you expected.

Where the Wild Things Aren’t

The US has clamped down on being wild. From the Patriot Act to the land developer’s need to categorize, boxup and stifle any individuality, the US is not a place for untidy, wild, or unruly. Its probably a leftover from our English ancestors, but if you’re a “tall poppy” these days, you’d best get out of town. 

I predict this trend reversing. I think we’re simmering to a boil, and once we get there, our wild selves are going to frolic in the wild daisies (if there are any to be found).

We are creatures of nature. The more we connect to our planet, the more organic and free we will let ourselves become.

Trend: I have no proof yet, but I think the same-same-same trend is going away. Soon.

“Check”ing out the Election Results

With Obama winning the election and entering the White House in January 2009, I think that fashion is going to pick up the pace and echo the cooperative and integrated sentiment of the times.

Look for black and white together to make a comeback. Checks, houndstooth, and/or black and white stripes will all be popular Blue may also feature in fashion–as thousands of democrats subconsciously wear their colors. 

Another influence will be Africa. Look for African color pallets, patterns and small details in clothing in the coming seasons. Maybe Fall 2009 or Spring 2010. If they can shift their focus before production, we might see it in Spring 2009.

I think the trend will continue in music. Look for Ska and mixed Reggae bands to make a Two-Tone comeback. 

Trend:  cooperation, unity, and merging of cultures, races and ideas. Look for it in black and white fashion, patterns, music and African themes woven into existing trends.

Eco-rexia

So the downside of all this conservation of resources–the downside of “Reduce, Reuse and Recycle” is something that I’m calling “Ecorexia.” These are the people that take extreme measures in their conservation. The ones that reuse plastic bags for a year, or don’t use any heat in the winter. The ones who channel their OCD into the new trend, by disguising their depravation as conservation.  It isn’t conservation, its depravation. In your quest to do right by the planet, beware the siren call of ecorexia.

Trend: Ecorexia–the disorder of “extreme” conservation.